Tom Hanna's Lifestream

With the week down to 4 days (no figures due out Friday ahead of the holiday weekend) and very little of substance earlier in the week, this week's drama is likely to come from news more than numbers.
The housing reports due out early in the week focus on builder sentiment (Monday) and its immediate effect in housing starts (Tuesday); these are two of the last indicators where we'd expect to see real improvement in the housing market showing up and in the field of housing starts bad news is still good news thanks to a continued inventory glut. The State Street Investor Confidence Index (Tuesday) will be interesting for the comparison between the lagging European economy and the US, where both public and private sectors are forging ahead at a quicker pace than in Europe.
With the summer driving season kicking off this weekend, the Wednesday oil report could return to the fore. If gasoline demand continues to show weakness and last week's drop in inventories was a blip rather than a trend, $60 oil is overpriced. If the inventory drops get serious and demand shows even a hint of recovery, markets seem poised to resume a more modest version of last year's insanity. The Federal Open Market Committe minutes (Wednesday) may start to get interesting again as there ought to at least be some discussion on how to contain inflation in the face of the huge expansion of the Fed balance sheet, which will be reported on Thursday. The Conference Board reports on Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indicators, also due Thursday, aren't likely to contribute much to forecasting, but the lagging indicators may confirm the growing consensus that the recession hit bottom early in the year.

Day / Date





Monday





Tuesday





Wednesday





Thursday





Friday







Indicators

Housing Market Index from the National Association of Homebuilders and Wells Fargo

Weekly Redbook Retail Index Housing Starts from the Commerce Department State Street Investor Confidence Index Leading Index for Germany from the Conference Board

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee from the Federal Reserve Leading Index for France from the Conference Board Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report and This Week in Petroleum from the Energy Information Administration

Leading Index from the Conference Board Weekly Jobless Claims report from the Employment and Training Administration Weekly Money Supply (M1 and M2) from the Federal Reserve Weekly Natural Gas Report from the Energy Information Administration

Treasury Auctions and Announcements

11 AM: 4-Week T-Bill Announcement 1 PM: 3-Month and 6- Month T-Bill Auctions

1 PM: 4-Week T-Bill Auction

None

11 AM: 3-Month and 6-Month T-Bill Announcements 11 AM: 2-Year, 5-Year and 7-Year Treasury Note Announcements

None

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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