Tom Hanna's Lifestream

There was enough positive news last week to innoculate the stock market against the worse than expected jobs report on Friday. That pattern may be harder to maintain this week. There is upside potential with some of the consumer-centric numbers – the Fed's report on consumer credit (Tuesday) and the RBC CASH Index (Thursday), but there are plenty of numbers due out with real downside potential and a real wildcard in Treasury auctions.
A series of Treasury auctions for medium term securities starts with Tuesday's auction of 10-year TIPS (Treasury inflation protected securities), followed Wednesday by a 3-year Note auction and Thursday by a 10-year Note auction. If demand is down in these auctions, it bodes ill for the US economic stimulus and the soundness of the dollar in coming months, with all the repercussions that has for world trade, commodity prices and almost every market. Other potential shockwaves could come from an international trade report that is more likely to show things getting worse than expected rather than better and from the monthly Treasury statement.
One item of note that may not be worth noting is the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the Fed's last FOMC meeting. There is one potential stunner that is almost guaranteed not to happen, though it really needs to – a mention of concern over the risk of inflation.

Day / Date





Monday





Tuesday





Wednesday





Thursday





Friday







Indicators

US Employment Trends Index from the Conference Board

Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve Japan Leading Index from the Conference Board Weekly Redbook Retail Index

Wholesale Trade from the Conference Department Federal Open Market Committee Minutes from the Federal Reserve Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report and This Week in Petroleum from the Energy Information Administration

International Trade from the Commerce Department Import Export Price Indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics CASH Index from RBC UK Leading Index from the Conference Board Korea Leading Index from the Conference Board Weekly Jobless Claims report from the Employment and Training Administration Weekly Money Supply (M1 and M2) from the Federal Reserve Weekly Natural Gas Report from the Energy Information Administration

Monthly Treasury Statement

Treasury Auctions and Announcements

11 AM: 4-Week T-Bill Announcement 11 AM: 3-Year and 10-Year Note Announcements 1 PM: 3-Month and 6- Month T-Bill Auctions

1 PM: 4-Week and 52-week T-Bill Auctions 1 PM: 10-Year TIPS Auction

1 PM: 3-Year Note Auction

11 AM: 3-Month and 6-Month T-Bill Announcements 1 PM: 10-year Treasury Note Auction

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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