Tom Hanna's Lifestream

Savvy investors may look to a relatively new economic indicator due out Thursday, the Conference Board's Euro Area Leading Index, for a heads up on where markets will be heading the next few weeks. With the Federal Reserve committing to essentially flooding the market with dollars, basically doubling the base US money supply, the dollar could be in real trouble if European markets do better than expected. A down report on Europe could signal some short term relief for the dollar and with it oil prices and US stocks. The other big news this week will be in US home sales with existing home sales due out Monday and new home sales due out Wednesdsay. Existing home sales took a big hit in January after showing some signs of improvement in the late fall, but this was largely a result of the foreclosure moratorium imposed by the nation's largest lenders. Stabilization, or better yet a rebound, could have an even bigger impact given the Fed plan to stimulate the housing market directly through purchases of mortgage backed securites; anything which makes that drastic move less necessary gives some shelter to the dollar. The week wraps up with Friday's release of personal income and spending figures for February. With February retail sales showing a surprise increase, the important number to watch here is likely to be the real disposable income. If real DPI beats the consensus prediction for a 0.2% drop, we could see a third month of improvements in retail in March and that sort of strength in the US consumer sector would have ripple effects worldwide.

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Indicators

Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors

State Street Investor Confidence Index Weekly Redbook Retail Index

New Home Sales from the Commerce Department Durable Goods Orders from the Commerce Department Australia Leading Index from the Conference Board Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report and This Week in Petroleum from the Energy Information Administration

4th Quarter GDP (Preliminary) and Corporate Profits from the Commerce Department Euro area Leading Index from the Conference Board Weekly Jobless Claims report from the Employment and Training Administration Weekly Money Supply (M1 and M2) from the Federal Reserve Weekly Natural Gas Report from the Energy Information Administration

Personal Income and Outlays from the Commerce Department Mexico Leading Index from the Conference Board

Treasury Auctions and Announcements

11 AM: 4-Week T-Bill Announcement 1 PM: 3-Month and 6- Month T-Bill Auctions

1 PM: 4-Week T-Bill Auction 1 PM: 2-Year Note Auction

1 PM: 5-Year Note Auction

11 AM: 3-Month and 6-Month T-Bill Announcements

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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