Tom Hanna's Lifestream

Three big housing indicators due out this week will reveal how well the housing market is navigating the path between prices dropping so far buyers are scared away and prices staying so high that reasonable buyers continue to wait on the sidelines. Mortgage applications have been strong, but lenders are reporting trouble with appraisals even for qualified applications and sales cancellations are reportedly high. The National Association of Realtors will report on existing home sales Monday, the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index is due out Tuesday and the Commerce Department will report on new home sales Thursday. Two big reports from the Conference Board come out Monday and Tuesday. The Leading Index is widely expected to fall further, indicating more bad news in coming months. Consumer Confidence is expected to begin a slow rebound from rock bottom territory with a 1 point improvement. Wednesday the Conference Board is also adding a new Leading Index to its global indicators - the euro area. The Durable Goods Orders report Thursday from the Commerce Department may be the most important figure we see this week. A drop is expected but reports and rumors are that many consumers after more than a year of cutbacks in personal spending and businesses which have been pinching pennies for over a year are reaching the point where replacement of aging durables is no longer optional. With the other bits of good news for consumers – lower interest rates finally trickling through in some cases, lower costs of energy and food – pent up demand for durable goods could lead the way out of this economic downturn. The main question is «When?» Two important announcements are likely to be anticlimactic. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, but the Fed rates are as low as they can go and certainly aren't going to be raised. With the Fed already committing to using non-interest rate policies, only an announcement of specifics could shake things up much Wednesday. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 4th Quarter is expected to drop substantially with the consensus above 5%. That's a huge drop already priced into the market, but don't expect much relief if GDP beats expectations by a slim margin as everyone is taking these things with more than just a grain of salt.

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Indicators

Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors US Leading Index for December from the Conference Board

Case-Shiller Housing Price Index January Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board Weekly Redbook Retail Index

Federal Open Market Committee Announcement Euro Area Leading Index from the Conference Board Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report and This Week in Petroleum from the Energy Information Administration

December Durable Goods Orders from the Commerce Department December New Home Sales from the Commerce Department Leading Index for Mexico from the Conference Board Leading Index for Australia from the Conference Board Weekly Jobless Claims report from the Employment and Training Administration Weekly Money Supply (M1 and M2) from the Federal Reserve Weekly Natural Gas Report from the Energy Information Administration

4th Quarter GDP Advance estimate 4th Quarter Employment Cost index

Treasury Auctions and Announcements

11 AM: 4-Week T-Bill Announcement 1 PM: 3-Month and 6- Month T-Bill Auctions 1 PM: 20-Year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Auction

1 PM: 4-Week T-Bill Auction 1 PM: 2- Year Treasury Note Auction

None

11 AM: 3-Month and 6-Month T-Bill Announcements 1 PM: 5-Year Treasury Note Auction

None

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations. You're reading a post from Financial Options, hopefully in your feed reader and not on a scraper site. Click through for the original and more like it. Financial Roadmap: The Week Ahead January 26 to 30, 2009